11.   His incumbent party, with Habibie as its presidential candidate, is still a major player, with the strongest nationwide infrastructure.

12.   If four or more of the conditions hold true in a state, the candidate of the incumbent party is the predicted winner.

13.   If they are doing well enough, the incumbent party wins.

14.   If the future looked better than the present, the incumbent party kept the presidency.

15.   In a year when the country was doing well, the swing voters were ready to stick with the incumbent party.

16.   In fact, this is a long way from most presidential campaigns, especially those trying to oust an incumbent party that has been in office for eight years.

17.   In each of the three previous elections when rates were coming down, the incumbent political party occupying the White House lost.

18.   In times of peace and prosperity, the incumbent party is almost always rewarded.

19.   Incumbent parties and presidents are rarely rejected at the polls.

20.   It will also be the first time an incumbent party is replaced without a coup or civil war.